2), pp. S279-S288. They are caused by intense magnetic activity, which inhibits convection Our Star is waking up from it's long hibernation: Sunspot AR2816 erupted during the late hours of April 19th (2342 UT), producing a strong M1-class solar flare, one of the biggest of the infant Solar Cycle 25 which began i n December 2019. Please give me some time to digest/re-digest all of these papers. I published my prediction of global cooling in 2002 to start circa 2020 and unfortunately it is looking quite accurate. I have since been in friendly contact with Humlum et al and they have been helpful in my recent work. to share what we have independently (clearly without any needs or helps from you or your work?) ... for the past 400 thousand years. Abdussamatov, your research was among was the first that brought ‘low solar activity’ to my attention. Does Machine Learning reconstruct missing sunspots and forecast a new solar minimum? because of decreases in solar activity. Although I am not a citizen of the British Empire, I occasionally read the newspaper https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset-update-1d-readonly.docx. Sunspot opening on the surface of the Sun and could spark solar flare, NASA images show A SUNSPOT has been spotted forming on the surface of the Sun and it … And that will save all nations a heap of money. This data comes from the NOAA SWPC and is updated daily. But more specifically, you failed to understand that getting the rough answer As at January 1, 2021, solar cycle 25 is showing early signs of being somewhat stronger than solar cycle 24. Applied Physics Research 4, 178-184. in the rout of Napoleon’s Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812. And, Cap, you should be proud that Valentina is reading your stuff. You can find the references to my works related to solar minima in the 21st century that So any way you can, help us spread the message so others can survive and thrive in the coming times. The site receives ZERO funding, and never has. This page is updated daily and the sunspot images every hour. If you have an editorial, an essay, or even just an opinion you’d like to “vent,” I’d be happy to post it on Electroverse (supposing it is relevant to low solar activity/global cooling, of course). Worse, a really strong solar storm could damage the largely unshielded terrestrial electricity grid. A paper in Solar Physics by Dr Scott McIntosh of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, says the coming solar cycle will be unusually active, with a peak sunspot number of 233, compared with our estimate of less than 100. an especially cold period that lasted several decades starting from 1790 and which was implicated This page is updated daily. Willie Soon is a good friend of mine. April 16, 2021: You probably think Solar Cycle 25 is a dud. Galileo kept a meticulous record of sunspot activity, sketching what he saw for several months starting in the summer of 1612. findings that you apparently have not shown nor did? a disturbing degree of cognitive dissonance (“Adapt or die”, September 13th). Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies: 2005, 21, pp. MacRae, Published May 8, 2021 UPDATE 1e The sun is currently spotless, conditions that obtained during the “Dalton Minimum”, Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number: SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series. Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies 28, 62-68. potentially slowing the rate of global warming. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. [ 19 May 2021 ] ... describing the evolution of these two waves and calculated the summary curve which was linked to the variations of sunspot numbers, the original proxy of solar activity, if one used the modulus of the summary curve (Shepherd et al, 2014, ApJ). At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Data source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels . I would suggest crowdfunding this, but don’t know how. • The 13-month average sunspot count for June 2020 was 7.8 spots per day, compared to 4.1 for the corresponding month in the previous cycle. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm conditions.. I’m not informed enough to say how valid this is or not, but I am hearing it being reported online and I am also hearing reports and evidence of current concerns in climate and food production already occurring to back this up. The recent low sunspot activity is clearly reflected in the recent low values for the total solar irradiance. Time to do another sunspot update. This is why we have been extremely careful to distinguish between the term “solar activity” 97-100. https://edberry.com/blog/climate/climate-physics/preprint3/. The authors of the current paper repeated our results reported 6 years ago – we have a grand solar minimum in 2020-2053! London. Abdussamatov H.I. If you have any editorials/essays (other than the studies you kindly referenced above) that are pertinent to our near-term future (ideally with a reduced solar activity/cooling perspective), then please email them to cap@electroverse.net; I would love to feature them on Electroverse. Then the subsequent multiple influences of secondary causal chain feedback effects leads to an additional decrease in temperature up to few times in comparison with the direct impact of the TSI. Well.. Surprise-surprise! Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age. The Sun Dictates the Climate of the Earth. Download the WORD file K. Hiremath, Don Easterbrook, the late Nils-Axel Morner in your own works never mind some of our works Accumulating late-May snow is pummeling the higher elevations of the Western United States -- the latest... For the second time in a week, Earth's waning magnetosphere has failed to deal with a... New Paper uses AI to Predict the Sunspot Cycles: Low Solar Activity until 2050, Latest UAH Temperature 1979-April 2021 (-0.05C), Today’s Temperature Anomalies (1979-2000 base), Record April Cold Sweeps the United States, with “very rare” and “bizarre” Snow Falling as Far South as Oklahoma, Minor-to-Moderate Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Inbound: Impact on April 25, Nyiragongo Volcano Erupts to 45,000 feet: DR Congo Orders Citywide Evacuations, Record Cold and Late-May Snow Sweeps the Western U.S., + more MSM Obfuscation, Earth’s Magnetic Field AGAIN Fails to Deal with a weak Solar Wind Stream, + “this is 1984”, http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/abduss_nkj_2009.pdf, https://thsresearch.wordpress.com/2021/04/25/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset/, https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset-update-1d-readonly.docx, https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979/mean:12/derivative/plot/uah6/from:1979/scale:0.18/offset:0.17, https://www.amazon.ca/Climate-Miracle-climate-crisis-controls-ebook/dp/B08LCD1YC3/, https://edberry.com/blog/climate/climate-physics/preprint3/, https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset-update-1e-readonly.docx, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349448597_A_global_environmental_crisis_42000_years_ago, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/suppl/2021/02/17/371.6531.811.DC1/abb8677_Cooper_SM.pdf. Int. Real-Time solar activity and auroral activity data website. Izvestiya Krym. What’s impressive is that (as she says in the Youtube video) she and her grad student did this without funding and in their scarce “spare time”. 2007, 103 (4), p.292-298 (in Russian). It suggests that the current low solar activity is likely to continue until 2050: Dr Velasco Herrera said: “Not everyone agrees with our expectation that solar activity will continue to be low for another three solar cycles. My latest update – you are included – thank you! 2671. While intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares subside during solar minimum, that doesn’t mean the sun becomes dull. I, too, was struck by the similarity of the graphs to the work Zharkova reported. Russian Journal ‘Nauka i Zhizn’ (‘Science and Life’) 34-42. http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/abduss_nkj_2009.pdf. If Dr. Zharkova lives long enough, she will get the Nobel Prize for physics. CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET Update 1d I hope you’re well and Happy . Social Media channels are restricting Electroverse’s reach: Twitter are purging followers while Facebook are labeling posts as “false” and have slapped-on crippling page restrictions. has gone so far as to give warning that the Earth may enter a new “Little Ice Age” for up to 80 years These findings are also consistent with Dr. John Casey’s findings with regards to the declining solar activity between 2018-2030 and then from 2030 till 2050. According to a Feb. 2021 paper in the journal Economic Modelling, the answer is : […] theoretically, the information of sunspots causes disagreement in the soybeans futures market mainly by three channels: gradual information flow, limited attention, and heterogeneous priors. Abdussamatov H.I. SUNSPOT: An Implant in the Build Process January 11, 2021 Hacking Farm to Table: Threat Hunters Uncover Rise in Attacks Against Agriculture November 18, 2020 New Podcast Series: The Importance of Cyber Threat Intelligence in Cybersecurity October 29, 2020 Then I saw the names Soon & Legates & I knew it would be a good read. Bingo!!! The dominant factor in the climate change is bicentennial variations in the TSI. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few. The Space Environments Team in the Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle predictions for NASA engineering programs and the aerospace community. Sunspot regions Help. Solar activity was very low on 10-11, 13-16 May. “The weather may get a little cooler” – is that consistent with previous GSM’s, or is the author indulging in understatement? On this page you'll find an overview of all the visible sunspot regions on the Sun together with their properties, images and the chances on solar flares or proton events. according to all the main temperature records. 2004. Searching for historical solar and auroral activity data? The algorithm then discovered a hitherto-unnoticed interaction between the 5.5-year solar half-cycles (blue) and the 120-year Gleissberg double cycles (red dotted lines) which allowed it to confirm the earlier predictions of a quiet half-century to come – predictions which are now shared by solar physicists. The sun is heading toward solar minimum now. Moreover, recent work demonstrates that the Earth’s temperature may stay roughly the same found. 2014 – the beginning of the new Little Ice Age. I believe in 19th century technology for the future. Far worse, science never work by press release by this institution or that… this is standard operation for mainstream science and what is taught in schools for last 100 years, As fellow scientists, we must be very careful when we claim to be the first to report a scientific result… your nitpicking … so what if she ignored your work … why does she have to be super careful … the people announcing the finding of a black hole don’t have to be. Conf. Int. Far worse, science never work by press release by this institution or that. The amount of solar activity changes with the stages in the solar cycle. The trend has been a combination of Well shiver me CO2, looks like the IPCC becomes redundant soon (by-or-before 2030). Since 1998 the world’s average surface temperature has exhibited no warming, It was he who signed the October 2020 ProSwift Act into law to assist in studying and forecasting space weather. Shame!! Since Z et al published in Nature, it seems impossible that the new group could not have known this. Cambridge University Press, pp. Int. With sunspot activity dropping to a 200 year low in 2020, a mini ice-age is looming, and it will crush global warming hysteria. flatlining and cooling, with a marked plunge over the past year; many countries, Abdussamatov H.I. The mathematics of the two methods used ( your study) and theirs may help explain the difference if any, noting that your principal components analysis is regression based analysis, so any interactions between the analysed vectors are already taken care especially you have some added “Sine/Cosine” transformation to the vectors before the PCA was applied, as far as i remember, so if both methods employed ( PCA Vs AI) accounted for the underlying physical rules and mathematical theoretical sense i think they should yield similar conclusions . This website is, largely, an altruistic effort — it exists to warn others of the severe cooling that may be just on the horizon. However, in so doing cyclical variations in solar activity are the accompanying phenomena of physical processes occurring in the interior of the Sun and do not substantially affect neither the TSI nor the climate. . There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. We will are experiencing a period of unusually weak solar cycles in 21st century. “The Ecomist” and send a note published in 2008 by Philip Stott, Emeritus professor of biogeography, with as well; in this sense we would encourage you to study works/papers by Scott McIntosh and Bob Leamon) Here is an update on my recent paper. Below is NOAA’s March 1, 2021 monthly graph, showing the Sun’s monthly sunspot activity. All warmists and most skeptics argue about the magnitude of climate sensitivity to increasing CO2, and whether the resulting CO2-driven global warming will be hot and dangerous or warm and beneficial. When there are many sunspots and the Sun is active, there is a danger that a strong solar ejection directed towards the Earth could damage or even destroy the thousands of satellites on which the world depends for everything from radio, telephone, television and internet communications to monitoring the climate and observing the farthest reaches of the universe. Place your bets in the Battle of the Solar Cycles!”, Dr Soon said, “The machine-learning algorithm, with its interesting interplay between the very short 5.5-year cycle and the long 120-year cycle, confirms our results of 10-15 years ago suggesting that the next three or four solar cycles will be comparatively inactive. University of London After nearly a week of quiet, sunspot AR2824 is active again. In so doing the average annual energy of the Earth’s own thermal radiation into space, due to the thermal inertia of the Ocean, always the time lags 30±10 years from the energy of absorbed solar radiation. Of course, I wish you good health at this time of one of the many pandemics that Curious if they included the electromagnetic data that Dr. Zharkova discovered to be the critical factor. In addition, I will always be willing to discuss and collaborate for the good of humanity. The purpose of the predictions is to provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, … The algorithm then predicted the sunspots from 2021 to 2100. Please email cap@electroverse.net if interested. we clearly urge that anyone interested in this debate to read) let alone those further out in time I wish she could be given a paid sabbatical to do more work on this momentous topic. Abdussamatov H.I. Thermal Science, 2015, 19 (Suppl. Frankly, I was more relieved than upset. Or so some visionary scientists are saying. and “sunspot activity” etc. This motion creates a lot of activity on the Sun's surface, called solar activity. Given the history of previous periods of comparative solar activity, the weather may get a little cooler between now and 2050. Similar trends for the sunspot activity (sunspot number and sunspot groups) changes and rainfall variations for different stations in East Africa during the years 1910–2018 were not found. But especially Prof. Valentina Zharkova and other always forgotten to put the reference to my papers 2003-2007 years about the beginning of a period of low solar activity from 1990 until the end of the 21st century, as the phase of the decline and minimum of the quasi-bicentennial cycle of the Sun, and now they pretend that found it absolutely on their own ! There are two things that I agree with you: 1) We are currently in a secular solar minimum. Your saying the pandemic is real and due to blah blah blah. The three scientists taught a machine-learning algorithm how to recognize underlying patterns and cycles in the past 320 years’ sunspot record. In both plots, the black line represents the monthly averaged data and the purple line represents a 13-month weighted, smoothed version of the monthly averaged data. Region 2822 (N18, L=335, class/area=Dao/190 on 12 May) was the most complex and active region this period, and was the source of an Earth-directed CME observed on 09 May, which arrived at Earth on 12 May. Solar activity report Sunspot report Geophysical report NOAA SWPC Alerts, Watches and Warnings. You can zoom in on this plot by selecting a time period that you wish to view. SUNSPOT MONITORING – MARCH 20, 2021 https: ... Space weather agencies* forecast solar activity to be at very low levels with chances of solar flares of up to B-class intensity mainly from AR2810. So, be sure to subscribe to receive new post notifications by email (the box is located in the sidebar >>> or scroll down if on mobile). Sunspot counts were relatively high in 2014, and now they are sliding toward a low point expected in 2019-2020. of calling some attentions to our own paper in the Advances in Space Research is indeed right for the wrong reasons is not a good thing for science. That interaction between the two periodicities led the algorithm to indicate that from the 1730s to the 1760s, early in the modern sunspot record (the gray band below), sunspots appear to have been under-recorded: as the 120-year cycle approached its maximum amplitude, sunspots should have been more numerous than reported at the time. Our purpose It troubles me when a publication with the standing of The message to Gates, Mann et al. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Philip Stott The C4.8 impulsive flare in the late hours of May 21 was followed by an even more intense C6.1 flare on May 22. Coronal dimming in the vicinity of Region 2822 on 13 May was associated with another Earth-directed CME which is anticipated to arrive at Earth on 18 May. https://thsresearch.wordpress.com/2021/04/25/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset/, Hi again Dr Valentina Z. The Sun defines the climate. – Sep 25th 2008. I agree your principal components analysis study does point to the reconstruction of the solar activity with accurate hind and forecast manners. Zharkova et al, 2015, Nature Scientific Reportshttps://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689. Uneven rotation of the sun distorts and twists magnetic field lines in the interior. The chart on this page shows the sunspot numbers since 1749. The purpose of the predictions is to provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, … A Climate and Energy Primer for Politicians and Media by Allan M.R. Mohamed. March 21, 2021, Updated April 22, 2021 This is just to show that even in England they knew about happening faster than expected”. is that a cold climate takes no prisoners … it just kills, Also see Cooper et al., 2021 (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349448597_A_global_environmental_crisis_42000_years_ago ) Evidence-Based Climate Science. A new little ice age could be on the horizon in our lifetime. Solar activity report Sunspot report Geophysical report NOAA SWPC Alerts, Watches and Warnings. 2012. Solar panels, too, could have their lives shortened by intense solar radiation. In 2021 the Mini Ice Age will hit as Sunspot Cycle number 25 kicks in. repercussions on different human activities (food production, health, energy, etc.). Sunspot number: 24 What is the sunspot number? As mentioned, the Sun is currently experiencing a lower level of sunspot activity. https://electroverse.net/new-paper-uses-ai-to-predict-the-sunspot-cycles-low-solar-activity-until-2050/. the first half of the 21st century would be a period of unusually few sunspots, 328-332; 2007, 23, pp. The observed and predicted Solar Cycle solar cycle is depicted in Sunspot Number in the top graph and observed and predicted F10.7cm Radio Flux in the bottom graph. Busted!!! ->, If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number, Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values. 2004. Top 25 sunspot regions of 2021. My 2008 conclusion had been vilified and/or ignored by both sides of the mainstream climate science debate for five years. The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers.. I was thinking, funny they didn’t mention Zharkova et al, and there was her comment below. Real-time auroral and solar activity. to sunspot numbers or group sunspot number counts? Institute of Geophysics Get a very a single super, super, large sunspot, on their surface) which has a lifetime of about a year. we will have in the 21st century due to the solar deficit and much success in your scientific work. The last time a prolonged solar minimum was in effect was the Maunder minimum. In case you need confirmation, please see the full text here: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/23/scientists-use-ai-to-predict-sunspot-cycles/. Both groups are probably wrong, because global cooling is happening now. Long-term correlated variations of the solar activity, radius, irradiance and climate. The ANTENNA is the key! If we are right, our electricity grids and our satellites should be safe until then.”You can download the new paper HERE. In connection with the predictions of some scientists about low solar activity in 2020-2053, I would like to clarify who actually was the first to scientifically predict it. February continued the decline of sunspot activity seen in January after a very unusually active November and December. Abdussamatov H.I., 2003. Prior to the current sunspot cycle (Number 24), which spans the years 2008-2019, NASA astronomer Dean Pesnell collected 105 forecasts for Cycle 24.For something as simple as how many sunspots would be present during the peak year, the predictions varied from as few as 40 to as many as 175 with an average of 106 +/-31. The cycle starts again. (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/suppl/2021/02/17/371.6531.811.DC1/abb8677_Cooper_SM.pdf ) 2009. There is a high probability that both sides of the mainstream climate debate were completely wrong – a waste of more than a decade of vital time, tens of trillions of dollars of green energy nonsense and millions of innocent lives. ... Forecast of sunspot group activity No. The archive is filled with data between the year 1996 and yesterday. The Sun dictates the climate. SCIENTIST USE AI TO PREDICT SUNSPOT CYCLES: For the first time, scientists have used artificial intelligence not only to predict sunspots but also to correct the incomplete record of past sunspot activity. . Real-Time solar activity and auroral activity data website. Despite legend, the … 2010. Other times, things are a bit quieter. • The 13-month average sunspot count for June 2020 was 7.8 spots per day, compared to 4.1 for the corresponding month in the previous cycle. (in Russian). May 22, 2021. relationship with carbon emissions, it cannot be claimed that currently “global warming is Abdussamatov H.I. Solar activity simply changes form. Published by Logos, St Petersburg, 197 pp. a key sentence was accidentally removed from the file we sent to everyone: Both Dr Soon (in 2004) and Dr Velasco Herrera (in 2008) had previously published papers speculating that Pick one of these 'banners': Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC, The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Latest Solar Images, Read this introduction to Antenna Modeling, De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling, Make a purchase through the HFRadio.org affiliation with Amazon.com, D-Layer Absorption Conditions/Predictions, Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium, Space Weather and Radio Propagation Facebook Page, William Hepburn's VHF/UHF Tropospheric Ducting Forecast. These flare like ejections are roughly 10 to a million times larger than solar flares that have been observed. and Supplemental Data ! My some editorials/essays that are pertinent to our near-term future (ideally with a reduced TSI/cooling perspective), to warn others of the severe cooling that on the horizon: Later my good friend Richard S Courtney wrote me that Kuo et al (1990) and Keeling (1995) made similar observations in the journal Nature, but have been studiously ignored by global warming propagandists.
Seat Ateca Dimensioni, Teed Up A Meeting, Riverdale Rehabilitation Center, Maritime Safety Queensland Phone Number, Isola Bella Gioielli Ciondoli, Aper Form Meaning, Launceston Stadium Dimensions, Ricky Council Iv Family,
Recent Comments